They reported the interception of multiple ballistic missiles launched from Iran. The attack comes in retaliation for recent Israeli bombings of Gisbala targets in the Lebanese capital. The president reportedly told Netan Yaho to be very careful with what he does because very soon he could find himself alone facing off against Iran.
If the terrorist regime makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond forcefully. Iran is winning the chess game against Donald Trump. The Middle East is heating up again and war is back. Israel Defense Forces reported the interception of multiple ballistic missiles launched from Iran. The attack comes in retaliation for recent Israeli bombings of Gisbala targets in the Lebanese capital.
Did you hear that right? Iran and Israel have resumed launching attacks while Donald Trump tries to restore some order. And I say “try” because we already know that this is like asking Tommy Jerry to stop fighting. Details have been released about the phone call that President Donald Trump reportedly had very early this morning with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
And there, supposedly, the president told Netanahu to be very careful with what he does because very soon he could find himself alone facing off against Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu, as is his custom, completely disregarded everything Donald Trump said. He continued to bomb the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and then attacked Iran.
All this while Trump tries to reach an agreement with the Iranians by any means necessary, which at this rate is going to take longer than the construction of the Sagrada Familia. A ceasefire is when you fire in a more moderate way. So, what do you want me to say? It’s not the definition we all have of a ceasefire , but hey, it’s Trump, we’re used to it.
But let’s get back to the topic. This deal determines not only the end of the war, but also whether the ayatollahs will be able to get their nuclear bomb, or whether we will ever be able to fill up our car tanks again without having to take out a mortgage. And this treaty has almost been signed 37 times, just like that, exactly as you hear it.
It’s like that university paper you finish and keep changing its name every time you correct a mistake; at first it’s called “final paper,” then ” final paper good,” then ” final paper good, this time it’s good.” Then the final work. Okay, this time it’s version 3. Well, this is the same. But while all this is happening, in the Strait of Hormuz mutual attacks continue between US aircraft, which bomb Iranian missile positions and sink Revolutionary Guard boats, and which in turn attack ships in the strait.
We ‘ve already told you that Donald Trump’s definition of a ceasefire is, to say the least, a bit peculiar. North American central command forces destroyed four Iranian one-nation attack drones on Friday that were headed towards the Strait of Ormon. They subsequently bombed coastal surveillance radar stations in Goruk and on Kesh Island.
Right now nobody knows what’s happening or where this situation is going to lead us . Therefore, the questions I ask myself in today’s video are one: why, with all the chaos that’s going on, is n’t the price of a barrel of oil at $150 or more? That mega oil apocalypse that everyone, including me, had predicted has not happened.
Second, why doesn’t Donald Trump withdraw from the Iran war? And three, who’s getting away with it? Today we’re going to answer these questions, but first there are two types of people in this world. Those who watch the news about wars, international crises, global conflicts and say, “Oh, how scary, the world is ending.
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So you know, because World War III has already started on your screen and this time you can win it. And now, let’s look at a little history. I am Fonseca. Welcome to Only Fons. The ceasefire of April 8th is a bit like the Yados truce because it was all smoke and mirrors. The petro-manarchies remain terrified of possible attacks from Iran and are still unable to export their dinosaur juice, except for a portion that the Audis manage to smuggle through the Red Sea via the pipeline leading to the port of Yandu, or the portion that the
Emiratis send through Fujira beyond the outer Mood. Between these two countries they sell at most about 5 million barrels of oil, and I can tell you that’s absolutely nothing. It is a quarter of the 20 million barrels they exported through the Dortmund Strait before the Iran war.
The situation has become so dire due to the Iranian and US blockades that it now only moves five ships a day. And this is nothing compared to the 150 ships that passed by every day before February 28th. That is to say, they barely move 25% of the oil and 5% of the pre-war traffic. As a result, oil went from $67 a barrel to $100. Look at this graph.
Brent crude reached $118 in March of this year, 2026, just after the war. And the whole world held its breath when it saw the graph rise like this . But over time it went down and except for some peaks, it has remained in the $ 95 to $00 range most of the time. It’s not exactly a super price, but you’ll agree with me that it’s not the apocalypse we all predicted, including me.
And someone will say, “But wait, didn’t we say that with the closure of the strait it was sleeping at $150 or more?” Yes, you’re right, that’s what should be happening. However, the oil market has its emergency brake, and that brake is called strategic reserves. Pay attention to this news. Concerns in energy markets showed signs of easing.
Despite the fact that Iran has effectively stopped traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The relief was supported by the International Energy Agency’s proposal to release a record amount of oil reserves. This would exceed the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The new release would be about 400 million. I’ll explain it to you in a simple way. Each country stores a huge amount of oil for emergencies. The celebrities, just in case. Like that condom you keep in your wallet that’s been there for 10 years without being used. Well, the same. But well, now there is a crisis where it seems they will have to draw on these famous reserves to calm things down a bit.
For example, France would mean releasing 14,500 barrels from its own strategic reserves to contribute to the agency’s global effort. Japan, for its part, announced the release of about 80,000 barrels. Germany initially spoke of 19.5 million barrels and the United Kingdom committed to 13.5 million.
The one who mobilized the most reserves was Uncle Sam, and it’s no coincidence because he is also the world’s largest consumer of oil and also the largest producer, but he also exports large quantities and although he now has the Venezuelan oil cow tied up, it is not enough to cover those 15 or 20 million barrels that used to come from the Middle East.
The latest news coming from the land of Delfi Rodríguez indicates that Venezuelan oil fields have reached a production of 1.25 million barrels per day, much to the delight of Donald Trump. You’re the best of the best, huh? Yes, I know, baby, I know. It may seem like a lot to Maduro’s ex-partner , although it really isn’t, but for the international market it’s just a drop in the bucket to pay for the economic fire.
And that is why Donald Trump released the reserves of Nacho Vidal proportions in March. The United States has just taken an extraordinary step, releasing 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves, one of the largest crude oil releases in recent history. To give you an idea of what this decision represents, Trump released more reserves than Joe Biden did when he had to step in to contain the price of oil after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
But even though the USA is the largest producer and can supply its consumers or even export, the global price of oil affects us all, including the United States. To give you an idea, the average price of a gallon of fuel rose by 40% and inflation climbed to 3.8% annually, its highest level since 2023. And given that dinosaur juice is the lifeblood of international capitalism, it makes sense that Trump was the first to release the strategic reserves.
Anything to keep the price down. Don’t forget that in November they have legislative elections which are almost a referendum on the power of the orange president. But what about the world’s second largest consumer? In this case, we are faced with another mystery, the oracle of Beijing, because yes, in some way, Siin Ping was the best prepared for everything that was coming and accumulated reserves from the final months of 2025.
According to data from the United States Energy Information Administration , EIA, China added an average of 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day to its strategic petroleum reserves in 2025, reaching almost 10 billion barrels in December. In total we are talking about 1.4 trillion barrels, which is what the whole world consumes in a fortnight.
And it didn’t have to empty them much because between the 4.3 million barrels it produces daily and the 12,000 it continues to import from other places, it easily reaches the 15.5 million barrels it consumes daily. That’s why China is far from suffering a fuel shortage crisis, or a gasoline shortage, or an oil shortage, whatever you want to call it.
Besides, it also has the oil that Putin sends it, which is about 2 million barrels a day and which could be increased in the future if Ukraine stops attacking the refineries, which I see as quite difficult, but that’s another story. In any case, China also has another reserve, in this case a floating reserve. And when I say floating, I literally mean floating.
Iran’s floating oil reserves, amounting to 160 million barrels, call into question the timeline for the blockade. Did you hear that right? The Hayatollahs also predicted it would happen and are now receiving more money, as oil has soared by more than 33%. Does that mean China pays more? Partly yes, because whether it’s Iranian or Russian oil, it comes with a discount of between 15 and 15.
Anyway, China is still doing business. And if you want to know how long China can hold out with its oil reserves, we’re talking about months, at least six months. And this is much more than Donald Trump has left to resolve the price crisis within his own country and, above all, to learn the verdict of the polls in November.
Everyone in the West knew this was going to happen, and once the strategic reserves run out , then we can truly say that we are on the verge of a critical situation. The possibility of seeing 150 is possible. I don’t see any lower oil prices right now . I see where we are or higher . Even if the conflict ends today, the one making this prediction is Alimos, the CEO of Chevron. And he’s not the only one.
Nailman. Exxon Mobil’s senior vice president said that we are approaching unprecedented inventory levels . It refers to really very low levels and it can be debated whether these very low levels will be reached in one or two to three weeks. This is the same alarm that was raised by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs banks.
They agree that if this Ormud crisis continues, oil reserves will not be sufficient to keep the price under control. So the question is, why doesn’t Donald Trump just end this conflict once and for all? The short answer is that it depends on what Iran and Israel do, who seem willing to attack each other despite orders from the White House.
But the long answer is that the Middle East is a chess game in which everyone is in check. And you might ask, why? Well, we’re going to see it right now. Everyone against everyone else. You know that Donald Trump wants to get out of the Iran war and, while he’s at it, he’ll wrap things up with a bow tie and a card that says “Thank you Trump” signed by all the participants in this war, and if possible, he’ll even include the Nobel Peace Prize.
He already said he won the war and that an agreement with Iran is imminent. The problem is that he said it a few times. Including the period before the ceasefire, the fire has been broken at least 37 times. That’s the number of times he has said directly in social media posts , public appearances, and phone calls to the media that a deal was close or that Iran was desperate to reach one.
It’s been over 100 days now, and the White House desperately needs to present an agreement with Iran that they can somehow sell as a victory. Which one could it be? In principle, Iran should hand over the 440 kg of enriched uranium and promise that it will never, ever, ever again manufacture or attempt to manufacture a nuclear bomb.
Pinky Promise, or rather, let him promise and allow himself to be inspected as he did with Obama, but without saying that they are copying what Donald Trump’s nemesis did . And this is where the problem begins, because the Iranians absolutely refuse to shut down their nuclear program, whether they say so openly or quietly.
And this is something that Israel is also asking for in order to stop its attacks against Iran. It’s not that Netanyahu is boycotting his friend, it’s that if Iran has a nuke, Israel could disappear because in such a small country there aren’t many places to hide. I mean, all you have to do is drop a nuclear bomb on Tel and you’ve wiped out half the country.
It is a small country, therefore, it is easy to destroy, in quotes, and given that the Iranians are not giving in for now, nothing can guarantee that the Jews will respect any document that Trump and Maharashmen sign, if such a document exists. And again, Netanyahu may rub you the wrong way, but this time he’s right, because remember that since the theocracy was established in Iran, they promised to eliminate Israel.
What’s more, they even built a doomsday clock on which they counted how many days Israel had left, which you know they call the little Satan. The Great Satan would be the United States . And in fact they continue to try with new attacks like the ones we saw last weekend. Israel Defense Forces reported the interception of multiple ballistic missiles launched from Iran.
The attack comes in retaliation for recent Israeli bombings of Gisbala targets in the Lebanese capital. Iran’s strategy is simple: it negotiates on one side and on the other tells its Hezbollah partners to continue attacking northern Israel, and when there is a response, they blame the Jews for the escalation while saying that peace is with them and their proxies.
And all this without mentioning that it continues to rearm in Gaza and that on October 7, 2023, it committed the worst massacre against Israel since its creation. Iran may have been devastated in the first part of this second season of the war against the United States and Israel, but it still maintains a collection of proxies surrounding the Israelis.
And all this without forgetting the Jews who continue to fire missiles and drones at Jewish territory from Yemen. Yemeni Uti people launch missiles at Israel and ban navigation in the Red Sea. But Iran doesn’t just have proxies. Although it was said when the truce was agreed on April 8 that Iran had almost no missiles, launchers or drones, as happened with the attack last June against the nuclear facilities, someone apparently exaggerated more than necessary.
New assessments say Iran retains 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting its military is still stronger than President Trump has said . And what is left for Israel? Well, for now, we must respond with an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth to Iran or its partners. Or something more in the case of Lebanon, because in its retaliation against Hbollah it plans to take a bite out of 10% of the territory of its northern neighbor, that is, Lebanon.
And that is precisely where Iran makes its move and told Donald Trump that if he wants a ceasefire and to negotiate a truce, he has to stop the war both in the Strait of Hormuz and in Lebanon. And that’s why Trump posted messages like this. Both Israel and Iran are seeking an immediate ceasefire. The final peace negotiations are underway, although ignorance or stupidity could hinder them.
The blockade will remain in place until a final agreement is reached. It is important that everything moves quickly. Thank you for your attention, President Donald H. Trump. Trump negotiated a ceasefire on both fronts. The idea was that Israel would stop bombing Beirut and in return the Lebanese would take care of keeping Raya and Gezbola under control.
something as complicated as putting handcuffs on an octopus. Meanwhile, the forces of Israel and Hezbollah continue to clash. As you can imagine, Israel does not want to be conditioned in its offensive against Hezbollah or against Iran. And it’s not just that Benjamin Netanyahu has to comply with his radical partners and Tamar Bengiver or Bezareles Motric, who, as you know, are his partners in religious Zionism.
Even the opposition, the moderate opposition, is demanding that he ignore Donald Trump and continue attacking the Iranians and their proxies. The fighting in Lebanon should not have stopped as part of the ceasefire with Iran. This strategic error must be corrected with a strong response in Iran, but no less important, with the continuation of the attacks in Da.
This is what Benigans said, who, as you know, is one of the opposition leaders running to replace Netanyahu, who is a moderate. In other words, this man is not from the far right, nor the extreme far right, nor the extreme extreme extreme far right that exists in Israel. This gentleman is one of the moderates.
And there is also another former prime minister, Mr. Naftali Bennett, who also believes that the process should not be halted despite Donald Trump’s requests. This is a time of testing. Is Israel a sovereign country capable of defending itself? A symbolic response would signal to our enemies that the blood of our citizens has been allowed to be shed.
Therefore, Israel must act forcefully and effectively. On this issue, all of us, all the citizens of Israel, stand together. As you can see, it’s no longer about what Benjaminanyahu says or whether his party, Liqud, is defeated in the September elections. It is possible that whoever succeeds him, Israel will remain on a war footing.
And this is a huge problem for Trump’s plans , especially if he wants to make a deal with Iran, which made it a condition that what is happening in Lebanon and in the Strait of Hormuz be treated as two parts of the same problem. In other words, one cannot be solved without the other. And this is something that Israel completely rejects, because for them the problem is flying in Lebanon and it never connects.
What happens in the Persian Gulf interests them as much as the outcome of the cricket league in Pakistan interests me. And it is precisely on Pakistani soil where the United Kingdom is trying to negotiate with Iran the other major objective that Donald Trump also set for himself: reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said, “Open the damn strait, you crazy bastards.
” Trump demands the Urmus Strait be opened and gave them until next Monday. This happened in April and since then the orange president has approved everything. First he bombed Iran, then he offered military escort to the 2,400 ships stranded by the Ayatollahs’ blockade, which didn’t work because insurers still refuse to issue policies for the risk of Iranian drones and mines.
Without insurance policies, shipping companies don’t set sail. The petro-monarchies are now trying to reach an agreement with the Iranians, and they’re a bit out of breath because it’s been three months without income for most of the Ferrari owners. This is a lot of wasted time. In other words, think of it this way: petro-monarchies are very rich, but because they sell oil, but now they can’t sell it.
In other words, not a single penny or dollar enters their economies. They are on the verge of crisis and are losing money. Now Trump is looking to close some deal that will make Iran open the way through stress to satisfy his partners in the petro-monarchies, who also promised him, don’t forget, a couple of billions, billions in Spanish, in English it would be a trillion, of investments in the United States, who also sponsor some of the Trump group’s real estate fantasies around the world, so that the man in the White House feels the pressure and the tug
on his ear. from several fronts. So much so that he now says he is willing to join forces with the new Ayatollah, Mr. Mottabai, or with what remains of him. US President Donald Trump stated that he would be willing to meet with Mugtabenei in the future if circumstances allow. Frankly, I don’t know if that meeting will actually happen, but if it does, they’re going to make a huge fuss about it.
But until this happens, if it ever does, all we can say is that Trump has been in office for 100 days and still has n’t managed to convince the Iranians, who have also established a toll collection system in bitcoins and yuan. And what did Trump do? Well, threaten the shipping companies that pay Iran. Trump threatens to sanction shipping companies that pay tolls to Iran.
That is why he placed a fleet in the Gulf of Oman and has since deactivated seven ships sailing to or from Iran. “Disable” is their way of saying they’ll shoot you when you try to break their blockade. The engine room. We are prepared to subject them to fire. The crew refused to obey and the Americans fired on the ship.
So far, Trump’s blockade , not Iran’s, has forced almost 100 ships to turn back. And with this we arrive at the same point as before, because this blockade and the Iranian blockade, both blockades at the same time, have reduced traffic through the Persian Gulf to just a few ships and prevented oil, which could otherwise leave, from doing so, thus threatening a crisis.
And to end this crisis, he has no other option but to attack Iran in such a way that it surrenders. That, or force the opening by risking their fleet in a battle for the Ormud Strait. So, at this point, the most important question arises . How is it that the world’s leading military power cannot deliver the final blow to the ayatollahs? Well, we’re going to see it right now.
Let’s choose what to do. Before we continue, if you’re new to this channel, let me remind you that we release new videos every week. The news reports tell you the news, I tell you the story. If you’re interested in international politics, geopolitics, or economics, all seasoned with a bit of sarcasm and dark humor, this is the place for you.
So, you know what to do: subscribe and hit the bell so you don’t miss any of our updates. And now, let’s continue with today’s story. On June 4th of this year 2026, Donald Trump suffered a defeat that went unnoticed, among so many other news stories. That day, the House of Representatives voted on a law to limit the president’s power to continue the war against Iran.
And for the first time since the war against Iran began, the House of Representatives approved limiting the president’s powers in that war. The vote ended with 215 votes in favor and 208 votes against. And the interesting detail is that four Republicans jumped over to the other side of the fence and voted alongside the Democrats who introduced the Maga bill.
The Make America Great movement. The cheaters, who until now had been a more or less monolithic group, began to show cracks. Now the project has to go through the Senate where there are four other Republican senators who oppose the way Donald Trump is handling the conflict. We are talking about Senators Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkovski, and Bill Cassidi, who are the candidates to join the 47 Democratic senators.
Don’t forget that the Republican bench has 53 of the 100 available seats, and if those four vote for this law, it is very likely that it will end up being approved by 49 to 51 or more, because there are two or even three other Republicans who have been strongly criticizing the idea of continuing with the attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As I already told you in a previous video, Donald Trump can veto the law or do what previous presidents did , which is to ignore his whims, the famous War Act of 1973 and therefore move forward. It’s possible, but what he ca n’t avoid is having to ask Congress for more money for a new round of bombings, which I can tell you now are not cheap, and to replace all the material that was used up in the previous season of this series, which is the Iran war.
In short, as you can see, things are far from simple for him. And there’s another piece of information that should discourage him from ordering more attacks. We can quickly see some numbers that speak to the widespread rejection of war. First, this was not a right or wrong decision regarding the war. Well, 64% say incorrect decision.
Only 30% believe it was the right decision. That’s what a poll published less than a week ago by the New York Times said. But another Youov poll says something very similar. Survey. Nearly seven out of 10 Americans want the war with Iran to end now. The war in Iran is as unpopular in the USA as having a low- sugar diet.
And together with the tariff war, they are turning the military adventure in the Gulf into Donald Trump’s Waterloo. Think of it this way. Americans voted for Donald Trump. Because? Partly because of the promise that his country would not get involved in any more wars, so that all the money could be dedicated to making life more prosperous for Americans.
And so far, not only have they failed to achieve a victory, they have also spent at least $40 billion on the war with Iran. The Pentagon estimates the US war in Iran cost $25 billion. No, sorry, I made a mistake. This figure is from April, that is, one month after the war began.
But we’re already approaching 100 days, and the daily expense of maintaining two fleets with aircraft carriers and escorts, air squadrons, soldiers on the ground, and everything needed to replace the billions in anti-aircraft and ground-attack missiles is a fortune that is almost impossible to quantify at this time. The Pentagon is requesting more than $200 billion to continue the war against Iran.
All this in addition to needing more money to pay off the outstanding military mortgage. The Hayatollah regime remains in power in Iran. The enriched uranium remains hidden, the missile program is still active, and now they also have the major problem of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed.
In this case, we’re talking about a hot issue because while we were preparing this video, the United States attacked Iran again after Iranian forces shot down an Apache helicopter. U.S. Central Command ( Cent) forces began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. ET today on the orders of the commander- in-chief, in response to the downing yesterday of a U.S.
Army Apache helicopter . The mission is a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression, and there is no victory in sight because even with an agreement with Iran, things would leave more or less as they were before, wouldn’t they? Because it is true that Iran may be devastated and its navy may now be a reef, but the task was only half done.
This means that the Iranians control passage through a corridor through which, I recall, 20% of the world’s oil passes, and on top of that, Trump is now facing a rebellion in the Republican party that is tying his hands and feet in giving a definitive and military response to the Islamic Republic of Iran. And how has Donald Trump taken it? Well, you can imagine. He’s very angry.
Donald Trump has lashed out at lawmakers who voted to send him a reprimand over the war in Iran, calling them unpatriotic. And all this is happening less than 4 months before the legislative elections. The polls explain why some lawmakers from her own party decided to forget the party’s discipline manual and play by their own rules.
Nobody wants to be the congressman or senator who voted in favor of an absolutely unpopular war, especially when that senator and that congressman are going to risk everything in these elections. This is something that chess players understand, they know it, and that’s why they play to prolong the times of the war. Think of it this way.
The closer the US elections get , the less advantageous it is for Donald Trump to get involved again in a conflict where he no longer knows if he will emerge victorious. Israel, not just Netan Yahu, but all of Israel, is also rejecting this agreement simply for the sake of survival. They cannot promise that they will not sabotage the Trump-Iran agreement by bombing Beirut and Tehran.
On the contrary, they have already said that they will do so if Iran attacks them again, which is as inevitable as the passage of time or the flippant criticisms of my friend Eduardo Garzón. For now, the fire on this front is contained because after striking the terrorist regime in Teeran, it stopped attacking us. If the terrorist regime makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond forcefully.
Let’s be clear, Iran has played its cards very well in this war, we’re not going to deny it. And they have the orange president by the balls. And be warned, you already know that I am not at all a supporter of Iran, the Ayatollahs, or their ideology. Moreover, I was the first to say when the Iran war started, well, it might work out well for Donald Trump.
However, that’s how things are. It has surprised us all, both friends and strangers. We no longer see Trump making as many public statements as before, and evidently the mood in the United States has plummeted. So now that we’ve reached this point, it’s your turn. Do you think Trump will give in to Iranian pressure? Will he find a way to emerge victorious before the legislative elections? Will he find any way to stop Benjamin Netanya? You can leave your answer in the comments.
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